BL Predicts: Week 7 vs Green Bay

Fans have been talking all week about how Chud should scheme to win with Weeden at the controls.   There's really only one way to do so, run the ball 60% of the time and be successful at it.   Put Weeden into a minimum number of situations where he can self inflict damage and put him into situations where the Pack are looking run so that Weeden has a chance to use that cannon of his against a defense that won't confuse him.

Unfortunately, the Browns don't have a running game to speak of and unless undrafted free agent Fozzy Whittaker comes out of nowhere to play a strong game, the Browns will find themselves relying on Weeden again on Sunday against the Pack.

The book on Weeden is out in the NFL.   Steelers pro bowl safety Ryan Clark had this to say about Weeden:

"For me, I feel like he's easier to defend,'' said Clark. "I think we'll do a good job against him, being able to confuse him, make him hold the ball and get some pressure, so Cleveland is definitely an easier team to beat with Brandon Weeden at quarterback.''

In obvious passing situations, Green Bay will succeed in confusing Weeden.   They'll drop into zone coverages with extra attention paid to Cameron and Gordon.   Weeden has difficulty coming off his primary target.    In the film I've reviewed, over and over again Weeden is unable to pull the trigger.   He sees a game that's moving too fast for him.   Typically opponents have dropped into zones and in slow motion it's easy to see Browns receivers with a step or two on defenders.  But the NFL game is not played in slow motion.   It's played at rocket speed and a QB has to be able to process plays in split seconds.  The best NFL QBs are able to do that but not Brandon Weeden.

BL Predicts:  Green Bay will cover the spread and beat the Browns rather handily.

Green Bay     27
Browns          14

The BL are 4-2 year to date in predicting who will win Browns games.

Insights into Brandon Weeden's vision

Take a close look at this sequence late in the game against the Bills

Photo 1:  Mitchell Schwartz has done a miserable job of pass blocking against Bills stud DE Mario Williams and Weeden is locked onto Greg Little so he has yet to note he's under pressure.











Photo 2:   Weeden now realizes that Williams is pressuring him and breaks free of Williams











Photo 3:   Mario Williams is now flat on the ground, Weeden is free of Williams.  The other 3 Buffalo Bills that are rushing Weeden are under control.   Weeden on this play immediately after breaking free of Williams chucks the ball out of bounds about 10 yards ahead of McGahee who can already been seen in the photo starting to break free of the linebacker #91 Spencer Johnson who was single covering him..  Weeden could have easily taken a few steps forward, bought himself 2-3 more seconds and given McGahee time to break completely free.

In Weeden's defense there were 2:25 minutes left in the game and the Browns were up by 3 points however the sequence clearly shows that Weeden had no count in his head of how many Bills had rushed him, which for an NFL QB is fundamental math he should do every play.   Weeden also had no clue about how much space he had once Williams had failed to sack him.   A 3 point lead with 2 minutes to go in the NFL is hardly a sure thing.   I believe most NFL QBs would have taken advantage of the extra 3 seconds they had on this play and tried to get the ball to McGahee.

Reasonable fans can argue about the result of this play but what appears to be certain is that Weeden panicked when in fact there were no Buffalo players in a position to sack him.

BL Predicts: Week 6 vs Lions

It's hard to understand the optimism that Browns fans feel about the 2013 season.  Personally, any optimism died when the Browns confirmed that Brian Hoyer is out for the season.   Hoyer had shown us all that the 2013 Browns had the talent to be a contender.  

Folks, Brian Hoyer is gone.   In his place returns Brandon Weeden and with the return of Weeden we return to slow reads, bad decisions, inaccurate passes, turnovers, three plays and out and losses.   Oh, and we'll also get to witness a couple of beautiful 70 yard touchdown flings interspersed among countless poorly executed passes during the rest of these games.

If nothing else, what Weeden's play will prove in 2013 is how critical the QB position is to an NFL team's results.  

BL Predicts:

Lions     23
Browns 13

The BL are 3-2 year to date.



 

BL Predicts: Week 5 vs Bills

Earlier this season my philosophy on picking Browns games this year was that I could achieve the best possible record of success by simply predicting the Browns would lose every week.   With Brandon Weeden at the controls, my record was in fact spotless.   However under the leadership of Brian Hoyer our Browns are indeed a completely different squad.

Hoyer's leadership, his ability to read defenses has led him to make decisive decisions and the passes he's throw have been surprisingly accurate with the right touch just about every time.   By leading long clock eating drives, it's also helped Ray Horton's defense emerge as a dominant force.  This is not any longer a bad team.   Even the trade of Trent Richardson seems to have hurt the Browns far less than anticipated.

Today we face a Bills team with a great defense however we also face a rookier QB in EJ Manuel.  Look for the Brownies to take advantage of Manuel's lack of experience on one or two key plays and look for Hoyer to keep leading his teammates to victory.

BL Predicts

Browns   20
Bills        10

The BL are 2-2 year to date

BL Predicts: Week 4 vs Cincinnati Bengals

The Browns have resolved a major issue by replacing Brandon Weeden with Brian Hoyer.   Weeden flat out lacks the vision, leadership and skill to be an NFL quarterback.  Watching Brian Hoyer play Sunday against Minnesota made it clear that Weeden is the worst QB to take the field for the Browns this century.

That stated, let's not get carried away.   Hoyer's tangible skills are quite average for an NFL QB.   He's not elusive, nor does he have anywhere near Weeden's rifle arm.  What Hoyer does possess are leadership skills that are top notch.  Unlike Weeden, Hoyer has the capacity to see the 11 defenders on the field of play and make the correct reads quickly.  Finally, Hoyer can place a football accurately if passing within his range.  

With the trade of Trent Richardson the Browns have no running game.   That will be a real issue against the Bengals.

On defense, the Browns front 7 take a backseat to nobody in the NFL.  That means our Browns can shut down the running game and pressure a QB.   That takes pressure off a mediocre defensive backfield.  The Bengals however have talent everywhere on offensive and an above average QB who takes what the defense gives him and doesn't hurt his team with slow or poor decision making.   Andy Dalton will absorb some blows from the Browns defense but he'll eventually find holes as the game progresses and put up points.

Last week we faced a Minnesota team that had several defensive backs injured and were not able to make adjustments to take out Josh Gordon.  The Bengals have depth and talent on defense and furthermore have a week of film of both Gordon and Hoyer.

It'll be back to reality this week against the Bengals who have too much talent for our Brownies.   I see Hoyer and his teammates battling and putting up a good fight but the Bengals will eventually wear them down.

BL Predicts:

Browns 21
Bengals 31

The BL are 2-1 year to date in predicting the winner of Browns games.

BL Predicts: Week 3 vs Minnesota Vikings

I have to confess that up until Wednesday evening, I was seriously pondering the possibility of predicting a Browns victory Sunday in Minnesota.   Then the NFL and Browns fans around the world were rocked by the stunning trade of Trent Richardson to the Indianapolis Colts.

Football is an emotional game.   More than any other sport an emotional edge can help a team sustain a winning effort on any given Sunday.   I believed that the entrance of Brian Hoyer this week as the Browns QB might give our Browns a boost.  Hoyer is a rather mediocre QB, which in my view places him well ahead of the disastrous Brandon Weeden.  However what I really like about Hoyer is the strong leadership he displays.   Hoyer knows how to create intensity with his teammates, something that Brandon Weeden has no idea how to generate.    How does Hoyer do it?   By decisiveness about how each play needs to be executed, enthusiasm and directness in the huddle and sacrifice and courage on the field of play.   Weeden is often confused instead of decisive, monotone as opposed to enthusiastic, and visibly afraid.

With a boost from Hoyer on top of a Ray Horton led defense that is playing very well, I believed the Browns could win in Minnesota.   However the Richardson trade has thrown a shadow of doubt over everything.   By far the worst element in this fiasco was the fact that the Browns organization, led by President Joe Banner, did not have the courage, discipline and class to inform Richardson he was traded.   Instead, Trent found out by listening to the radio.   I have run a large organization and always made it a matter of pride to deal directly and forthrightly with difficult matters.   This builds trust and motivation.

No matter how it is spun, when leadership in an organization avoids delivering difficult messages to it's employees, those employees lose motivation and commitment because they don't trust the people who lead them.

Our Browns players are professionals and many of our leading players have great character, but emotion is a fuel that can add passion or take it away.  I am convinced that because our Browns are led by players like D'Qwell Jackson and now Brian Hoyer, they will start out Sunday with motivation however faced with a hostile crowd and coming off a draining week noted by a serious erosion of trust by Joe Banner, that motivation will dissolve as the game progresses.

I believe that the Browns will start off very well against the Vikings, but will not be able to sustain that intensity and we are going to lose a very close one Sunday in Minneapolis.

BL Predicts

Browns       13
Vikings       17


The BL are 2-0 year to date on the prognostication front.

Jimmy Haslam: NFL's beloved crook

Jimmy "the weasel" Haslam is squeezing money out of Our Browns that he needs badly to defend himself from numerous civil cases and probable pending criminal charges with Pilot Flying J.  Whether or not Haslam is charged by the FBI remains to be seen but it's already conceded by Haslam that his company cheated truckers out of rebates. Since Haslam is CEO of the company, if he was unaware of the fraud going on in his company, he's a fool. Sincerely speaking, Haslam strikes me as a lot of things, but a fool is not one of them.

If Haslam were a player and robbed a truck driver of a few hundred dollars, he'd already be out of the NFL because the league has shown that it will harshly discipline all players embroiled in any legal controversy.   However Haslam's company robbed truck drivers in a white collar crime, something NFL owners feel much more empathy for.  For proof that the NFL owners support Haslam and his businesses criminal acts look no further than their pledges of loyalty and support. Insider old boy club called NFL could not give a crap about Browns fans.

another shady Haslam deal

Here's a bit of news we had no idea about.  Haslam's ties to a murky investment in Louisiana to truckstops with gambling that ended in bankruptcy for the primary investor.  

Who is the real villain?   The NFL, for allowing this shady character to purchase our Browns.

Speechless

The Browns trade Trent Richardson to Indy for a late first round pick??

Speechless.

After one day however it's hard not to wonder if the Browns haven't dumped Richardson because Browns owner Jimmy Haslam needs cash due to his criminal issues at Pilot Flying J.   The prestigious Forbes magazine wondered the same in this article.

Brian Hoyer to start

Maybe there is yet hope for the 2013 season in Cleveland.  Chud announced today that Brian Hoyer will start game 3 in Minnesota.

There are two things we have seen thus far this season:

1.  The game still has not slowed down for Brandon Weeden.  To quote ex Browns head coach Sam Rutigliano, "Weeden still seems to see the defense like it's Times Square on New Years eve."  I have watched both Browns games several times and the theme that continues to emerge is that Weeden almost always waits until a receiver comes wide open before he's willing to pull the trigger.   This is why Weeden's passing metrics in the red zone were horrible last season and it's why neither Norv Turner's vertical passing game nor the shotgun formation will magically transform Weeden into a star.

2.  Our defense is legit.   If you don't give up points you can't lose.  Of course, the Browns D has given up a few points this year and the team has lost.   But a closer look shows that the Browns D has gotten weaker in the second half as Weeden led "drives" stall out over and over again and our D is on the field far more than opponents.

The bottom line:  If Cleveland simply had a mediocre QB instead of a below average QB, with our outstanding defense, this team could rack up a decent run of winning.

Brian Hoyer looked very good against the Bears in the preseason.   Of course it's true that the Bears were playing second team players and vanilla defensive formations however my evaluation of Hoyer against Chicago is strictly on his soft skills.

Hoyer played with an intensity required of an NFL QB, he showed non stop leadership which was in stark contrast to the "deer in the headlights" look that Weeden often has.   Football is an emotional game and a QB that understands how to tap into those emotional levers can drive performance of his team.   Finally it's true that Hoyer has nothing near to Weeden's arm however, Hoyer was able to throw the ball accurately to players in traffic, something Weeden either cannot do or is not willing to do.

Look for the Browns to give Minnesota all they can handle this Sunday and barring injury to Hoyer, look for Weeden to have taken his last snap as a Cleveland Brown.

BL Predicts: Week 2 vs Baltimore

The Brown Log start week 2 of our season of predictions ahead of 100% of the local Cleveland pundits because nobody and I do mean nobody predicted a Browns loss except for us.

What is astonishing about this fact is that we felt it was obvious the Brownies were going to get their asses handed to them by the Dolphins.   If nothing else, Browns fans are eternal optimists.

A detached analysis of the facts is better than emotion when trying to prognosticate.  In that spirit let's take a look at week 2.

A reminder should be made right now.  The Baltimore Ravens, as painful as it is to say it, are the defending Super Bowl champions.   They lost Ray Lewis to retirement and Ed Reed to free agency along with a few role players like Browns linebacker Paul Kruger but the core of the team is intact and Ravens GM Ozzie Newsome has a strong history of bringing in new talent that can stand out.

A second reminder can also be made.   The Browns stink and this week they play on the road where even good teams usually lose.

Upsets do happen in the NFL.  Sometimes a great gameplan can compensate a gap in talent or sometimes your opponents star player simply has a bad day.    I see none of the pre conditions for an upset.   Chud and Norv Turner are still struggling to get their hands around this team and the emotional edge rests firmly with Baltimore.  If anything the Browns players are demotivated by the big loss last Sunday and further by the fact that Joe Banner and Mike Lombardi let go of so many talented players before week 1.

The Ravens will be motivated even more by the fact that this is their home opener.  The BL see Baltimore delivering their fans a W and Sunday looks to be another very long painful day for our Browns.

BL Predicts:   Ravens by 3 touchdowns

Ravens 31
Browns 10

The BL are 1-0 year to date on the prediction front.

Why neither Norv Turner's vertical scheme nor the shotgun formation will make Brandon Weeden a Superstar

Both Brandon Weeden and Ryan Tannehill are second year quarterbacks in the NFL.  Both are viewed as mediocre however a closer look at the Browns Dolphins game today reveals one important difference.   An NFL QB must be able to anticipate when a receiver is coming open and be capable to accurately thread the needle to complete a pass.

Tannehill has enough field vision, anticipation and accuracy to throw passes in traffic.   A good example of this capability is the below pass by Tannehill to #42 Charles Clay.  Clay has a linebacker on his back but Tannehill knows that Robertson is not going to be able to make a play on the ball if he locates his pass accurately.   Watch today's game closely, outside of the red zone Weeden did not attempt a single pass to a receiver in traffic.   This is one reason that Weeden was hit 16 times today.  It was obvious on many occasions that Weeden held the ball longer than designed, while he waited for defensive coverage to break down so he had an open shot at a receiver.

It's difficult for an NFL QB to improve his field vision, even with experience.  The ability to see a player come open, is a God given gift and Weeden doesn't have it.

BL Predicts: Week 1 vs Miami Dolphins

Many Browns fans are filled with optimism as the 2013 season approaches because the Browns coaching staff appears to be, for the first time in ages, a legitimate staff with a reasonable strategy.  That's probably true however last time I checked, talent rules the day in the NFL and our Browns are a team full of holes in their lineup.

It's true that the home team wins 58% of the time in the NFL but I don't see the home field being enough of an advantage for Cleveland.   Look for the Dolphins to overwhelm the Browns with talent, taking special advantage of the lack of depth that the Browns have in the defensive backfield, to break numerous big plays.   On offense the Dolphins should be able to take advantage of 3rd string RG Oniel Cousins, a player who has no business starting in the NFL.  By beating Cousins  the Dolphins can put enough pressure on Weeden to get him panicking and also help limit the damage Richardson can do on the ground.

I hope I'm wrong but on paper it sure promises to be a long day for the Browns.

BL Predicts

Dolphins 31
Browns  17