The Brown BLog Predicts: Stay the Course

The Browns have won two games in a row without their franchise QB, whose rotator cuff hangs in the balance.   The Browns Defense and Special Teams deserve much of the credit for those two wins, not to mention some officiating calls that seem inspired by the legendary gambler Tim Donaghy.

However illogical it is that the Browns are 4-2 today, it remains hard for me to accept that this Browns team is destined to success.   PJ Walker undeniably is a cool customer under pressure and I like his leadership, but carry the Browns to the playoffs?  I don't think so.   He's putting more film out there every week, NFL teams are going to find even more cracks in his game.

So this week the Brown BLog stays the course and predicts yet again the Browns will lose this week vs. a very good Seahawks team.

Let's hope for a Washington Commanders loss this week because word is that if they win, Jacoby Brissett is not getting traded.   Without Brissett the Browns hopes for salvaging a playoff season are going to go down the toilet, because I don't care what anybody says, you can say what you like about Deshaun Watson off the field, but on the field he is a warrior.  If he's not playing something is seriously and structurally wrong with that rotator cuff.

Brown BLog Predicts

Seahawks        28

Browns            17

the Brown BLog are 2-4 season to date predicting Browns outcomes.

The Brown BLog Predicts: On the Road to Indy

Winning on the road is hard in the NFL, the home team wins 56% of the time in the NFL.  Fans and pundits are almost universally aligned in predicting a Browns win this week and that the Colts, because Gardner Minshew is at QB, are beatable.

Wrong.   While I like Anthony Richardson, think he will be a goo QB and am sorry to see him out for the season, I also think facing a rookie QB would have been a bounty for the Browns defense.  Minshew on the other hand, might be a journeyman, has been around the block enough to know when to take a risk and when to fold.   Furthermore the Colts have a good run game and plenty of young, fast and talented defenders.

This is a trap game and I think the Browns are the prey.  Deshaun Watson might well be back, but unless the Browns can run the ball and get a long overdue big game from their $15,000,000 Tight End, I see this game tilting to the Colts.   

Watson is likely to be rusty yet again and Njoku rarely produces a Travis Kelce like output, in spite of his similar salary.  I think Watson will be his old self at some point this season, but not after 3 weeks off and I think Njoku will eventually put up some numbers, maybe today but it won't be enough today.

The Brown BLog Predicts:

Colts        26

Browns    13

The BL are 2-3 this season prognosticating Browns games. 

The Brown BLog Predicts: Week 6 vs SF 49ers - - - EaSy!!!

 PJ Walker off the taxi squad to battle the 5-0 49ers?

Easiest Prediction of the Season:

The Brown BLog Predicts

49ers        31

Browns    10

The Brown BLog is 2-2 this season predicting Browns games. 

Paul DePodesta's Guardrail of the Week: No Uncoordinated Leaks!

 One of Paul DePodesta's Guardrails is "no uncoordinated leaks"

This week, we all learned for the first time from Josina Anderson, that Deshaun Watson will not play vs the 49ers.   

This is chaos, not coordination.

Paul DePodesta's GUARDRAIL OF THE WEEK- Don't Pay for Depth! - Cleveland Browns Analytics

 Absurd to think but the Cleveland Browns have been extremely secretive when it comes to detailing the strategies that result from their extraordinary investment in analytics.

Why is it absurd?   Because analytics have produced below average results.

How can we measure the results of analytics if the Browns hold their strategies so close to the vest?  Well let me take a stab at this.

- Paul DePodesta is in his 8th season as Chief Strategy Officer

- The Browns record in his first 7 seasons is 40-73-1.....

- The only documented record I can locate of Mr. DePodesta's strategy are his infamous Guardrails:

 

Every single guardrail published all those years ago can be questioned and the Brown Blog plan to look at every guardrail in the coming weeks, but today let's look at one guardrail that is "in the news" of late.

PAUL DePODESTA GUARDRAIL OF THE WEEK - DON'T PAY FOR DEPTH

In a season in which Jimmy Haslam is paying over $280,000,000 in player salaries, many of them free agent signees, which in itself is an abandonment of another guardrail strategy, but leave that for another week, the Browns simply could not resist the analytical goldmine of accumulating a 5th round pick and saving $2,000,000 in salary by trading Josh Dobbs.   Dobbs is playing well, he is playing in fact like a QB who has been in the NFL for 6 seasons and knows how to handle the QB role.

I too was swept away by DTR's pre season performance however I am not being paid a 7 figure salary to make roster decisions for the Cleveland Browns.   

The aligned team of Paul DePodesta, Andrew Berry and Kevin Stefanski are however paid millions to decide how to spend Jimmy Haslam's billions and in less than 2 months that trade has the stench of horrid decision making.

Given how and how often the Browns run Deshaun Watson, having depth at QB is critical in a season that Jim Haslam hoped to make a deep playoff run.   But Analytics says don't pay for depth and here we are.........

Go Browns!