BL Predicts: Week 8 vs Kansas City

The Kansas City Chiefs are a good example of why the Marty Schottenheimer formula wins games.   Andy Reid has the Chiefs using a very Marty like ball control running and short passing game, thus giving opponents offenses less time to score points.   KC's offense averages over 32 minutes possession per game.  It's a pretty basic idea but if the other team doesn't possess the ball, it's a lot harder to score.

The other very Marty-like characteristic of this KC squad is that they do not make mistakes.  They turn the ball over rarely as witnessed by their +11 turnover ratio that leads the entire NFL. 

KC are on a roll right now.  Jamaal Charles is grinding out yards and Alex Smith keeps the chains moving with his short passes. 

Our Browns are a Jekyll and Hyde team.  With Brandon Weeden at the controls we are probably the worst team in the NFL but with Brian Hoyer our Browns looked like contenders.   With Jason Campbell now leading the way, we don't really know which kind of team our Browns will be.

Campbell looked very mediocre in the pre season but he's an experienced veteran who knows that preventing mistakes will be a key if the Browns have any chance to beating the Chiefs.  Furthermore Campbell adds a dimension to the Browns offense.   He can scramble for yardage.   I see Campbell scrambling early in the game for a big gain or two.  

The Browns will make a respectable showing, but when deciding if the Browns can upset the Chiefs or not, I keep coming back to the fact that when Marty coached our Browns they almost always won the games they were supposed to.   I think the Browns will play a very tight game on Sunday but with Andy Reid playing Marty ball in KC, it's hard to imagine his team losing this week.

BL Predicts:

Kansas City Chiefs     20

Cleveland Browns      17

The BL are 5-2 this year in predicting the winner of Browns games. 

Brandon Weeden leaving it all out on the field

Brandon Weeden gave Chud little choice but to bench him when he attempted The Flip II vs Green Bay.  With Weeden on the bench, all we're left with are these precious memories of Brandon Weeden leaving it all out there on the field of play.

BL Predicts: Week 7 vs Green Bay

Fans have been talking all week about how Chud should scheme to win with Weeden at the controls.   There's really only one way to do so, run the ball 60% of the time and be successful at it.   Put Weeden into a minimum number of situations where he can self inflict damage and put him into situations where the Pack are looking run so that Weeden has a chance to use that cannon of his against a defense that won't confuse him.

Unfortunately, the Browns don't have a running game to speak of and unless undrafted free agent Fozzy Whittaker comes out of nowhere to play a strong game, the Browns will find themselves relying on Weeden again on Sunday against the Pack.

The book on Weeden is out in the NFL.   Steelers pro bowl safety Ryan Clark had this to say about Weeden:

"For me, I feel like he's easier to defend,'' said Clark. "I think we'll do a good job against him, being able to confuse him, make him hold the ball and get some pressure, so Cleveland is definitely an easier team to beat with Brandon Weeden at quarterback.''

In obvious passing situations, Green Bay will succeed in confusing Weeden.   They'll drop into zone coverages with extra attention paid to Cameron and Gordon.   Weeden has difficulty coming off his primary target.    In the film I've reviewed, over and over again Weeden is unable to pull the trigger.   He sees a game that's moving too fast for him.   Typically opponents have dropped into zones and in slow motion it's easy to see Browns receivers with a step or two on defenders.  But the NFL game is not played in slow motion.   It's played at rocket speed and a QB has to be able to process plays in split seconds.  The best NFL QBs are able to do that but not Brandon Weeden.

BL Predicts:  Green Bay will cover the spread and beat the Browns rather handily.

Green Bay     27
Browns          14

The BL are 4-2 year to date in predicting who will win Browns games.

Insights into Brandon Weeden's vision

Take a close look at this sequence late in the game against the Bills

Photo 1:  Mitchell Schwartz has done a miserable job of pass blocking against Bills stud DE Mario Williams and Weeden is locked onto Greg Little so he has yet to note he's under pressure.











Photo 2:   Weeden now realizes that Williams is pressuring him and breaks free of Williams











Photo 3:   Mario Williams is now flat on the ground, Weeden is free of Williams.  The other 3 Buffalo Bills that are rushing Weeden are under control.   Weeden on this play immediately after breaking free of Williams chucks the ball out of bounds about 10 yards ahead of McGahee who can already been seen in the photo starting to break free of the linebacker #91 Spencer Johnson who was single covering him..  Weeden could have easily taken a few steps forward, bought himself 2-3 more seconds and given McGahee time to break completely free.

In Weeden's defense there were 2:25 minutes left in the game and the Browns were up by 3 points however the sequence clearly shows that Weeden had no count in his head of how many Bills had rushed him, which for an NFL QB is fundamental math he should do every play.   Weeden also had no clue about how much space he had once Williams had failed to sack him.   A 3 point lead with 2 minutes to go in the NFL is hardly a sure thing.   I believe most NFL QBs would have taken advantage of the extra 3 seconds they had on this play and tried to get the ball to McGahee.

Reasonable fans can argue about the result of this play but what appears to be certain is that Weeden panicked when in fact there were no Buffalo players in a position to sack him.

BL Predicts: Week 6 vs Lions

It's hard to understand the optimism that Browns fans feel about the 2013 season.  Personally, any optimism died when the Browns confirmed that Brian Hoyer is out for the season.   Hoyer had shown us all that the 2013 Browns had the talent to be a contender.  

Folks, Brian Hoyer is gone.   In his place returns Brandon Weeden and with the return of Weeden we return to slow reads, bad decisions, inaccurate passes, turnovers, three plays and out and losses.   Oh, and we'll also get to witness a couple of beautiful 70 yard touchdown flings interspersed among countless poorly executed passes during the rest of these games.

If nothing else, what Weeden's play will prove in 2013 is how critical the QB position is to an NFL team's results.  

BL Predicts:

Lions     23
Browns 13

The BL are 3-2 year to date.



 

BL Predicts: Week 5 vs Bills

Earlier this season my philosophy on picking Browns games this year was that I could achieve the best possible record of success by simply predicting the Browns would lose every week.   With Brandon Weeden at the controls, my record was in fact spotless.   However under the leadership of Brian Hoyer our Browns are indeed a completely different squad.

Hoyer's leadership, his ability to read defenses has led him to make decisive decisions and the passes he's throw have been surprisingly accurate with the right touch just about every time.   By leading long clock eating drives, it's also helped Ray Horton's defense emerge as a dominant force.  This is not any longer a bad team.   Even the trade of Trent Richardson seems to have hurt the Browns far less than anticipated.

Today we face a Bills team with a great defense however we also face a rookier QB in EJ Manuel.  Look for the Brownies to take advantage of Manuel's lack of experience on one or two key plays and look for Hoyer to keep leading his teammates to victory.

BL Predicts

Browns   20
Bills        10

The BL are 2-2 year to date