Brown BLog Predicts: Game 12 vs 49ers - Shedeur's Impact

 

I cannot understand how Kevin Stefanski cannot see that an NFL QB must have the ability to stretch the field vertically. 

If you are Jimmy Haslam you have to evaluate at the end of the 2025 season if the Dillon Gabriel gamble is indicative of a massive hole in Stefanski's understanding of the NFL or simply a risky bet that didn't work out.   I saw Rex Ryan recently comment that Dillon Gabriel has NONE of the physical traits needed by an NFL QB.   If you are Jimmy Haslam, whose contact list is full of NFL experts, you have to have heard this comment over and over again.   He most certainly heard this after Day 2 of the 2025 NFL Draft and that's most likely why he mandated that Andrew Berry pick Sheduer Sanders on Day 3 and I say in this case, Haslam nailed it.  Thank you Jimmy!

Sunday is going to be another game that adds color to the narrative running through Jimmy Haslam's mind.  And I predict the outcome of Sunday's game vs the 49ers is going to be a very bad one for Stefanski.   

How bad?   Really, really bad - I believe the Browns are going to win.

Why is a Browns win bad for Stefanski?  Because it's going to further reinforce in Jimmy Haslam's mind that all the losing in 2025 was unnecessary and could have been avoided by simply approaching the offense with a Jim Schwartz mentality.  It's simple, a conservative offense capable however of attacking at any time that is led by a QB who can reach any part of the field, is better than Kevin Stefanski's overly complicated approach that bets on a QB with computer processing speed who has too weak an arm to complete more than 5 yard dink passes. 

Jim Schwartz has a defense where every defender knows his role and plays super fast because they do not have to think too much

Kevin Stefanski has an offense where a 3 year veteran who has a college degree, Cedric Tillman, still lines up on the wrong side of the field at a critical moment.  This Browns offense makes dumb mistakes every week.  I assume it's because they must consume energy trying to remember what their assignment is on any given play.  And they play slow as molasses, like they’re wearing cement shoes. That stands in contrast to the rocket speed with which Jim Schwartz’s crew plays.

Because Shedeur is playing Sunday, because the Browns ignored Shedeur most of the season Sheduer has to have a simple game plan Sunday.  Using a simple game plan Sunday against the Raiders resulted in the Browns offense actually looking fast much of the game, scoring more than 20 points, and oh yeah, winning!!  Of course the Browns defense was the key, but the Browns defense was good against the Jets too, and the Jets stink. The difference was Shedeur put a screen pass in Dylan Sampson‘s hands. Dillon Gabriel threw a screen pass into the stands on a similar play against the Jets. I’m sorry, but there’s zero question in my mind that with Dillon Gabriel at the controls last Sunday against the Raiders, the Browns would have lost. 

Because Tommy Rees is calling the plays and is ambitious, he is going to make sure Sanders has a good game plan.  The Browns are going to keep it simple Sunday against the Niners.  What will be the result?  A few big plays and another win against a good 49ers team.

A win against the 49ers Sunday only serves to reinforce in our owners mind that drafting Shedeur Sanders was a very good idea (and it was in fact a very good idea) and that his coach and GM did not agree with him. 

The Brown BLog Predicts

Browns 27

49ers     20

The Brown BLog are 8-3 year to date predicting Browns games. 

Brown BLog Predicts: Game 11 vs Raiders - Get Ready!

I think I had a Browns insight last week while watching the Ravens game.   In the 1st Quarter the Browns had a 4th and 1 on their own 39 and they went for it.  On the play, Cedric Tillman, a third year veteran, lines up on the wrong side of the field and the result?  Illegal formation, 4th and 6 now, punt......

The insights are two actually:

- The Browns playbook is apparently so complicated that Cedric Tillman, a third year player who graduated from the University of Tennessee with a degree in Communications struggles to keep up with all the details.   I don't blame Tillman, he's clearly a bright young man trying his best.  I blame the Ivy League approach to football that the Browns utilize.

- The second insight is that the reason the Browns fell in love with Dillon Gabriel is that they convinced themselves that by installing a QB who has complete command of the Browns playbook, they could bridge the gap between their Ivy League playbook to the error free execution of that playbook.  Ironically, it was Gabriel at the commands when Tillman lined up on the wrong side, and our GPU Processor QB somehow missed that tiny detail. 

Is having a playbook so deep that you can counter every possibility the path to a Super Bowl?

Nah......................

Football is not only a chess match, it's an emotional and physical battle of some of the world's greatest athletes.  Intelligence certainly helps, but the history of the NFL is filled with examples of winning teams that ran simple schemes executed by well coached athletes.   Often times, it's actually getting so good at running a play that the athlete DOESN'T have to think that is the key to playing fast and winning.

So who is going to win this week in Las Vegas?  Fascinating question because this week, the Browns won't have their GPU Dillon Gabriel on the field to assure that Kevin Stefanski's playbook is executed with exacting skill.  Instead they will have Jimmy Haslam's greatest draft pick - Shedeur Sanders making his first start.  I love Shedeur but he is the "antithesis" of an Ivy League QB.  Shedeur is a combo of heart and skill.   At this stage of his career I would say keep it simple and let him do what he does, which is win plays.

What should happen is this:

- The Browns use Shedeur like the Steelers used Ben Roethlisberger his rookie season.   Run the ball over 50% of the time and let Shedeur pass no more than 20 times focusing his drop backs on obvious running plays to give him some time to think back there.

What I think probably will happen is:

- The Browns will pass at least 40 times.

There are two factors however that makes me want to choose the Browns Sunday

- First it would be the most Browns thing ever if Shedeur has success Sunday after watching the last month and a half of Dillon Gabriel struggling to get the ball deeper than 5 yards downfield.  As bad as he played last week, Shedeur on several occasions lofted the ball 20+ yards downfield which is a must in the NFL.  Had Greg Lavradain caught a ball that was in his hands, Shedeur would have had a shot at leading a comeback win.

- Second, the Raiders are as bad as the Browns.

Since Stefanski is "not" calling plays Sunday and Tommy Rees is, I am going to go ahead and predict the improbable.   Shedeur plays just well enough to guide the Browns to a win in his first start.  Why?  Because he's a winner even if the Browns usually are not.

The Brown BLog Predicts

Browns    30

Raiders    20

The Brown BLog are 7-3 year to date predicting Browns games. 

Shedeur

I can root for the Browns again. 

What an odd sensation.

Brown BLog Predicts: Game 10 - Ravens v Browns

 

No need to dwell this week.

The Ravens have lost 3 of their last 4 games in Cleveland and Lamar Jackson is playing hurt but the Ravens have started to recover their season and know that getting back to .500 this week is critical to get to the playoff contention.   Meanwhile the Browns are simply trying to figure out how to dial in a few plays that Dillon Gabriel can execute successfully in the NFL.

A win is simply not in the cards this week.

Brown BLog Predicts

Ravens 27

Browns 13

The Brown BLog is 6-3 season to date predicting Browns games. 

Browns lose to Jets?

- Special teams

- I can’t believe I predicted the Browns to win this game

- That all said, all we have to do is get better

Brown BLog Predicts: Game 9 vs Jets - I'm Gonna Go with my Instincts on this one

My gut says this is the week to finally predict a Browns victory.   Yes the Browns have won two games this season but I’ve yet to predict a Browns win. 

Factors that favor the Browns

- The Jets have just finished trading off Pro Bowlers Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams.

- The Jets are 1-7 and probably should be 0-8

- The Browns D should dominate Justin Fields as they did last time they faced him when he was with the Bears

- The Browns finally are rid of albatross Paul DePodesta, a truly great week for Browns fans.

What troubles me

- Dillon Gabriel and the Browns offense cannot move the ball 

- The Browns are on the road

Still my instincts say Browns win easy tomorrow.

So in the best spirit of Lloyd Christmas I am going to go with my instincts on this one

Brown BLog Predict

Browns              23

Jets                     14

The Brown BLog are 6-2 this season predicting Browns games.

We are going to look at everything

Question:  coach, will you be making any changes?

Answer:  We are going to look at everything

Question:  Will you look at changing the starting quarterback?

Answer:  Dillon Gabriel is going to start at quarterback

Brown BLog Predicts: Week 8 - Browns at Patriots

I don't have much of a feeling either way this week as the Browns travel to New England to face the Patriots.

Here is my stack up of factors:

- Browns are on the road

- Drake Maye is playing very well this season, he has taken a nice step up from his solid rookie season

- The Browns D is certainly the strongest Maye has faced all season

- Dillon Gabriel has shown in 3 games this season that he cannot get the ball downfield more than 10 yards.  The big question is whether or not he is being handcuffed by his coach who knows the Browns cannot afford mistakes, or whether Gabriel does not have the ability to get the ball downfield in the NFL.  The Patriots will dare him him to go deep, that's a certainty.

I believe this week's game starts to reveal what many believe about Dillon Gabriel which is while he may be a computer processor of NFL reads, he is too short and his arm is not strong enough to regularly complete passes that stretch the field.

Look for Gabriel's first turnovers against Mike Vrabel's well prepared defense and the Patriots to capitalize with a win at home. 

The Brown BLog Predicts

Patriots    27

Browns    17

The Brown BLog are 5-2 year to date predicting Browns games, though most would point out I've yet to actually pick the Browns to win a game this season.  My retort would be.,, as Charlie Sheen might say.......... "duh"

The Joe Flacco Trade

The first thought that crossed my mind when the Browns traded Joe Flacco to the Bengals was there had to be a conversation between Andrew Berry and Kevin Stefanski that I imagined to be something like this:

Andrew:  Can Joe still play?

Kevin:  No, he's a great guy but he's lost it.  Go ahead and make the trade.

At that time, my thoughts were "aligned" - I thought Flacco probably has lost it and being the skeptical Browns fan I am, my mind went to how is it that the Browns decided to make Flacco, who has clearly lost his touch, their opening day starter???

Flacco's masterful performance against Pittsburgh Thursday evening changes that narrative.  Now it's strictly a conversation about "incompetence".  

Browns is Browns

Brown BLog Predicts: Week 7 vs Dolphins

The second time Dillon Gabriel played Ohio State last season was on January 1 in the Rose Bowl.  In that game Dillon Gabriel had respectable stats going 29-41 for 299 yards, 2 TD's and no interceptions.  But a deeper look is more troubling.   Gabriel was completely shut down by Ohio State's defense until after Ohio State was up 34-0 right before halftime.   Once Ohio State got up by 34 points they went into clock management mode and gave Gabriel a bit of room to breath.

That Buckeye defense had 8 members drafted in the 2025 NFL Draft.   It was a great defense.   My worry is that as bad as the Miami Dolphins are, they are an NFL defense.  The book is already out on Dillon Gabriel.   Put him under pressure and dare him to throw the ball more than 20 yards downfield.  Even with his brilliant computer like mind, his good manners and excellent interviewing skills, all of which impressed Andrew Berry and Kevin Stefanski and convinced them to draft Gabriel in the 3rd round, Gabriel lacks one small detail, he does not have an NFL arm.   Lacking an NFL arm is a problem even for Quarterbacks who stand taller than 6'.    

That's a problem.

The weather may be bad tomorrow which could mean all bets are off but even with bad weather, I cannot see a path for the Browns to walk out of their home stadium with a W against Miami.

That said, I do believe Quinshon Judkins will break a long TD or two and the Browns D may well put up some points.   Look for a closer game than normal and a rare moral victory with the Browns scoring 20 points.   Moral victories aside, a loss is a loss and I think the losing will continue on Sunday in the Dawg Pound.

The Brown BLog Predicts:

Dolphins   28

Browns     20

The Brown BLog are 5-1 year to date predicting Browns games. 

BROWNS CRISIS MODE: Opinion - What I Would Do If I Were Jimmy Haslam

I watched the Netflix documentary The Gambler and his Cowboys about Jerry Jones and came away with a different reaction than the one I imagined:  a newfound respect for Jones.   I knew Jones played College Football but I didn't realize he was a starting offensive lineman on a National Championship Team.  

Jones has a sound foundation as a football expert.  Furthermore, he grew up in a middle class family which gives him humility.   Jones has often been bold, but I learned watching that documentary that at many points in his life, Jerry Jones faced decisions that would ruin him financially had things gone wrong.   Jones oozes self confidence however the fact that he grew up by humble means gives him sufficient humility to assess risks.   

What does this have to do with Jimmy Haslam?   Everything.   I think Jimmy Haslam sees himself in Jerry Jones and that self image is the source of everything that has gone wrong with the Cleveland Browns during the Haslam era.

First, Jimmy Haslam is not a football expert.   Jerry Jones is.  Ok, Jerry Jones is crazy, but he is an expert.  Case in point?  I can give you one good one.   Jerry Jones passed on Johnny Football....

Second and most important, Haslam falls below the threshold of accurate self assessment.  It was Richard Feynman who once stated "The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool"

Haslam spent his entire business career in a large corporation created and owned by his father.   Unlike Jerry Jones, Haslam does not know what it feels like to know that one bad decision could lead to ruin.  When you have the structure of Multinational Corporation behind you, it's hard to fail.  I know, I ran an operation for a multinational corporation for 7 years in Italy.  I had smaller more nimble competitors, who were led by people that had more technical depth than I did.  But what they lacked that I possessed was the support of a big bank, world class law firms, tax consultants and accounting firms.  I was smart enough to know that my success those 7 years was attributable to the organization I had supporting me and my team and that my very able competitors were handcuffed in many ways. I leveraged those advantages every chance I had. 

When I look at the Browns during the Haslam era, it feels like he never learned he's not infallible.  In the world of multinationals competing with smaller competitors, it's hard to lose.  In the NFL everyone has the same resources.   The consequences of impulsive decisions are immediate and destructive.

So what would I do if I were Jimmy Haslam after the Dolphins game?

- I would immediately announce that Kevin Stefanski no longer reports to me.  I would have Stefanski report to Andrew Berry and I would announce that I will begin to search for a new leader to run football operations.   Once hired, Berry would report to this person and this new leader would be responsible to drive football operations.   I would wait until the end of the season but not any longer, to hire this person. 

- I would offer Paul DePodesta a position as an outside consultant, but eliminate his role in the Cleveland Browns organization.

Why?

Because everything that has gone wrong with the Cleveland Browns during the Haslam era has Jimmy Haslam's fingerprints on it.   And whether it be feelings of guilt or regret, it clouds his ability to assess situations.  

More importantly, even when Haslam is paralyzed by regret, he still cannot control his impulsiveness.  Yes for 6 years now Haslam has had the same head coach and general manager for if you look underneath the hood, impulsiveness still reigns:

- It had to be Haslam that drove the decision to fire AVP and replace him with Ken Dorsey - DISASTER

- It had to be Haslam to drive the decision to fire Mike Priefer and hire Bubba Ventrone - DISASTER

- $230,000,000 fully guaranteed?  Who else, Jimmy Haslam - DISASTER

Need I go on? 

I'm not sure Kevin Stefanski is the answer.   But I am sure that Stefanski is a solid coach whose main defect is that his job security is too tightly connected to saying yes to every ignorant idea Paul DePodesta comes up with and I am also sure that Jimmy Haslam has no business running the football operations of an NFL team.   

Solve the real problem first please. 

Sad But True!

During the Steelers game on this sack of Dillon Gabriel, the Browns kept 8, yes EIGHT count them, offensive players in to protect Gabriel in an attempt to try to give Gabriel time to get a ball deep to one of the two receivers they sent downfield

The result?  Jalen Ramsey sacked Dillon Gabriel

Harold Fannin, who to be fair, has flashed potential all season long as a pass catcher, made a rookie mistake and completely missed Ramsey's blitz.   

So the Browns kept 8 in to protect their QB, and the Steelers with 7 defenders attacking, got to Gabriel in about 2 seconds for a big sack.

 

Brown BLog Predicts: Week 6 vs Steelers

Anybody can win in the NFL and even for the Browns it is rare when I truly believe there is zero chance on a given Sunday that the Browns will win, but it happens.    

It seems that on those rare occasions I think there is zero chance the Browns win and I put it in writing, the Browns actually win.

So with great trepidation, I am going to put this in writing:  There is absolutely zero chance the Browns beat the Steelers this Sunday.

Why:

- Rookie QB

- Mike Tomlin

- The Steelers are coming off a bye week

- The Browns are coming off international travel and jet lag last Sunday

- Browns team morale coming off a devastating loss and two surprising trades during the week.

The Brown BLog Predicts:

Steelers        27

Browns        13

The Brown BLog are 4-1 season to date predicting Browns games.