Brown BLog Predicts: Game 16 vs Steelers

Depending on how the Ravens do tonight against the Pack, the Steelers could have nothing to play for tomorrow or everything.  Either way, they will beat the Browns.

The Brown BLog Predicts:

Steelers        24 

Browns         17

The Brown BLog are 9-6 season to date predicting Browns games.

Affirmations: Why I hope the Browns don't fire Kevin Stefanski

I was listening recently to a podcast with Seth Wickersham, who wrote a book about quarterbacks called American Kings, and he shared a small detail that stopped me in my tracks. At one point, Wickersham saw a notepad belonging to Tom Brady. Scribbled on it were affirmations, simple, direct statements Brady wrote to himself. Things like, “You are the man.”

My first reaction, like I suspect most people’s, was disbelief mixed with a little eye-rolling. Tom Brady? The guy with the rings, the records, the dynasty? If anyone on earth should be immune from self-doubt, surely it’s him. Doesn’t the world remind him daily that he’s special? Shouldn’t it be obvious, even to himself?

But the more I sat with it, the more that reaction unraveled.

Unlike almost any other profession, elite coaches and athletes live under a microscope of constant judgment. Even the best of the best are subjected to second-guessing that borders on oppressive. Every throw, every decision, every fraction of a second is replayed, dissected, and criticized by millions of people who have absolutely nothing at stake except their mood on a Sunday afternoon.

I know this impulse well, because I catch myself doing it all the time. Stefanski is a bad play caller, Caitlin Clark should have passed that ball. Aaron Rodgers should have thrown that one away. These thoughts pop out of my mouth as if they are obvious truths rather than armchair commentary. Every now and then, though, the stupidity of one of those remarks bounces off the wall and comes right back at me.

I imagine Kevin Stefanski sitting in the cube next to mine at work and turning to me with the same tone of certainty: “Jesus, John, how could you concede a five percent discount? They were ready to give you the order at list price.” The absurdity becomes clear pretty quickly. I am very glad that selling industrial machinery is not a spectator sport, complete with instant replay and a talk-radio postmortem.

That’s when the point really lands. If I, sitting comfortably on my couch, feel free to nitpick the decisions of world-class coaches and athletes, imagine what it feels like to be the one actually making those decisions, knowing the criticism is coming no matter what. Even Tom Brady is not immune to that barrage. In that context, writing “you are the man” on a notepad doesn’t look silly at all. It looks healthy.

Affirmations aren’t about ego. They’re about anchoring yourself when the noise gets loud. Performance, whether in sports, sales, or life, is always more fluid when it’s built on a foundation of thoughtful self-confidence. Not bravado. Not denial. Just a quiet reminder that you belong, that you’ve done the work, that one mistake doesn’t erase everything else.

That may be the real lesson to take from Brady’s notepad. It’s not that even legends need reassurance—though they do. It’s that all of us perform better when we remember we’re doing just fine. And maybe there’s a second lesson tucked in there for us fans as well. Our favorite athletes might actually perform a little better if we cheer them because they’re on our team, even if they make a mistake.

So while I have made a sport out of second guessing Kevin Stefanski I am also old enough to know, when it comes to football he is the expert.   And after six years of winning and losing, he is as well positioned as anybody on earth to make the next 6 years good ones.

So call it an early New Years resolution, but I hope the Browns keep Coach Stefanski and I hope in spite of the legions of folks in the peanut gallery, that Kevin Stefanski reminds himself every day that he's one of 32 people on earth so qualified that he gets to lead an NFL team into battle every Sunday.

Confidence, it turns out, is not something you achieve once and keep forever. It’s something you practice. Sometimes with a Lombardi Trophy. Sometimes with a pen and a simple sentence written to yourself: you are the man.

Mike Tomlin

 Mike Tomlin extends his streak to 19 consecutive non-losing seasons

Brown BLog Predicts: Game 15 vs Bills

As the Browns head towards the end of another epic season, predicting another win this season feels foolhardy.  Injuries have mounted and only Shedeur and Myles Garrett have something to play for. 

The Bills are too good to let down in Cleveland and the weather is going to be a non factor for the first time in a few weeks. 

Look for another lopsided loss in the Browns run towards 3-14

Brown BLog Predicts

Bills        31

Browns    13

The Brown BLog are 8-6 season to date predicting Browns games. 

Browns analytics- 2 point conversions

The long-term success rate in the NFL on two point conversions is around 50%. The Browns, when they were down 14 vs the Titans last week, decided to go for 2 after a touchdown. Why not, the data says odds are if they attempt a two point conversion twice, they will score 2 points and if they were successful to get the first 2 they can win the game with an extra point.  

I’d like to point out the problem with Browns analytics:  that two point success rate is largely being achieved by experienced players when you look at the success rate across the entire NFL the athletes that score are experienced quarterbacks, wide receivers, running backs & tight ends  

Obviously, if you put a high school team out there, the success rate in the NFL would be 0%, and if you put NFL rookies in all of the key spots on a two point play, it stands to reason the success rate is going to be significantly less than 50%  

Statistics can lie, and when it comes to the Browns analytics they do  

Brown BLog Predicts: Game 14 - Browns v Bears

 

I am excited once again to root for the Browns.   

Why?   Shedeur Sanders.

Pundits abound with opinions about what makes a great QB.   They site this or that statistic, they take one play and draw conclusions.

Here is what I see about Shedeur:  He wins plays and every single time he lines up behind the center to throw the ball, he's trying to win that play.   When there is man coverage, Shedeur recognizes it and looks for a mis match because he wants to win plays.  Winning plays means winning games and sometimes it means making mistakes.  What Sanders will learn with time is that an interception is not the end of the world if you make that risk when you're on the opponents side of that field.  That's as good as a punt so long as you win the risk more than you lose and with Shedeur Sander's accuracy, he is going to win a lot more than he loses. 

He has another characteristic that winners have.  Sanders does not give a sweet shit what other people think.  He's authentic and that makes him a leader.   It also made him into a fifth round draft pick because the lilly white draft rooms of the NFL even in 2025 fear a young minority who won't kiss their ass.   

My gut says the weather tomorrow is going to hold scoring down and in a game with artic conditions, good leadership combined with winning a few key plays can make all the difference in the world.

The Brown BLog Predicts

Shedeur and his Browns    17

Da Bears                            14

The Brown BLog is 8-5 season to date predicting Browns games.

Clown Show

- Going for two points down 8

- Running a trick play, needing two points to tie the game

And 

How any NFL coach or GM could look at Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders and decide that Gabriel is better just blows my mind

Where would this team be if Sanders was developed from the first day of training camp?

Brown BLog Predicts: Game 13 - Browns v Titans

This weeks game is frustrating because it is the first game this season where it's clear, the Browns have no hope and it is also clear that while many pundits blame the Browns lack of talent at receiver and lack of depth on the offensive line, it may well be poor planning and judgement on scheme and strategy for the offense and special teams that doomed the Browns in a season where 9 wins may well win the AFC North.

The Browns offense is so complex that a smart veteran like Cedric Tillman made a basic mistake against the Ravens, lining up on the wrong side of the field.   That one play symbolizes everything wrong about the 2025 season.  Had the Browns simplified their offense and played basic, fast football, they surely could have won a few more games this season and even one more win at this point in the season would leave us with hope.

Instead we are hopeless.

Will the Browns beat the Titans?   I think so, after all the Browns are more talented, but will they make errors at critical points in the game?   Sure, after all that's their M.O.....

I'm rooting for Shedeur and I think he will make a big play or two in spite of his coaches who need to be better.

Brown BLog Predicts

Browns     24

Titans        17

The Brown BLog are 8-4 this season predicting Browns games. 

Three Reasons I think Haslam Cleans House on January 5

Before the 2025 season, with reference to his leadership team's future stability, Jimmy Haslam stated that a  3-14 in 2025 "won't cut it" which set the baseline of expectations.  I feel fairly confident the Browns will win at least 4 games in 2025 so the question is will a 33% improvement in 2025 be enough for Kevin Stefanski and Andrew Berry to survive?   

Here are 3 reasons I believe Haslam cleans house on January 5.

1.  Against the Raiders, the broadcast showed JW Johnson, Jimmy Haslam and Andrew Berry in a loge.   Each of the 3 sat at least 6 feet away from the other and Haslam was busy texting away.   Their body language communicated a level of discomfort and I think the reason for the separation was neither Johnson nor Haslam wanted Berry to get a sideways glance at who they were texting and what they were texting about.

2.  I have now read three articles that reinforce just how sought after Kevin Stefanski will be should he and the Browns part ways.  Stefanski's agent is Jimmy Sexton, one of the most powerful and well connected agents in the NFL.   It's just a guess on my part, but hard for me to imagine that of their own initiative, national sports writers are making discreet phone calls to teams like the Giants to ask "hey, if Kevin Stefanski is fired, tell me just how much you love him".   That stories are far more likely to be Jimmy Sexton initiated and designed to influence the Browns org.

3.  Paul DePodesta is gone and he was the first domino.   DePodesta knows appearances count so he managed to maneuver his way out of Cleveland and engineer a nice new role before the whip came down but make no mistake, the analytics obsession is done in Jimmy Haslam's mind.  And thank goodness for that.  Stefanski and Berry are connected at the hip and Stefanski was DePodesta's guy.  They all share credit for what went well and the blame for the collapse these last two years. 

Brown BLog Predicts: Game 12 vs 49ers - Shedeur's Impact

 

I cannot understand how Kevin Stefanski cannot see that an NFL QB must have the ability to stretch the field vertically. 

If you are Jimmy Haslam you have to evaluate at the end of the 2025 season if the Dillon Gabriel gamble was indicative of a massive hole in Stefanski's understanding of the NFL or simply a risky bet that didn't work out.   I saw Rex Ryan recently comment that Dillon Gabriel has NONE of the physical traits needed by an NFL QB.   Jimmy Haslam’s contact list is full of NFL experts, he must’ve heard this comment over and over again.   He most certainly heard this after Day 2 of the 2025 NFL Draft and that's most likely why he mandated that Andrew Berry pick Shedeur Sanders on Day 3 and I say in this case, Haslam nailed it.  Thank you Jimmy!

Sunday is going to be another game that adds color to the narrative running through Jimmy Haslam's mind.  And I predict the outcome of Sunday's game vs the 49ers is going to be a very bad one for Stefanski.   

How bad?   Really, really bad - I believe the Browns are going to win.

Why is a Browns win bad for Stefanski?  Because it's going to further reinforce in Jimmy Haslam's mind that all the losing in 2025 was unnecessary and could have been avoided by simply approaching the offense with a Jim Schwartz mentality.  It's simple, a conservative offense capable however of attacking at any time that is led by a QB who can reach any part of the field is better than Kevin Stefanski's overly complicated approach.  Stefanski’s playbook is apparently so complicated that he and Andrew Berry decided to experiment by seeing if a QB with computer processing speed, high IQ and great interviewing skills could execute exactly what Stefanski designs and win in the NFL in spite of sub par physical attributes. 

Jim Schwartz has a defense where every defender knows his role and plays super fast because they do not have to think too much

Kevin Stefanski has an offense where a 3 year veteran who has a college degree, Cedric Tillman, still lines up on the wrong side of the field at a critical moment.  This Browns offense makes mistakes every week.  I assume it's because they must consume energy trying to remember what their assignment is on any given play.  And they play slow as molasses, like they’re wearing cement shoes. That stands in contrast to the rocket speed with which Jim Schwartz’s crew plays.

Because the Browns ignored Shedeur most of the season Shedeur has to have a simple game plan Sunday.  Using a simple game plan Sunday against the Raiders resulted in the Browns offense actually looking fast much of the game, scoring more than 20 points, and oh yeah, winning!!  Of course the Browns defense was the key, but the Browns defense was good against the Jets too, and the Browns lost to the Jets. The difference was Shedeur!  Just one example- Shedeur put a screen pass in Dylan Sampson‘s hands and Sampson took it to the house to effectively end the game. Dillon Gabriel threw a screen pass into the stands on a similar play against the Jets. I’m sorry, but there’s zero question in my mind that with Dillon Gabriel at the controls last Sunday against the Raiders, the Browns would have lost. 

Because Tommy Rees is calling the plays and is ambitious, he is going to make sure Sanders has a good game plan.  The Browns are going to keep it simple Sunday against the Niners.  What will be the result?  A few big plays and another win against a good 49ers team.

A win against the 49ers Sunday only serves to reinforce in our owners mind that drafting Shedeur Sanders was a very good idea (and it was in fact a very good idea) and that his coach and GM did not agree with him. 

The Brown BLog Predicts

Browns 27

49ers     20

The Brown BLog are 8-3 year to date predicting Browns games. 

Brown BLog Predicts: Game 11 vs Raiders - Get Ready!

I think I had a Browns insight last week while watching the Ravens game.   In the 1st Quarter the Browns had a 4th and 1 on their own 39 and they went for it.  On the play, Cedric Tillman, a third year veteran, lines up on the wrong side of the field and the result?  Illegal formation, 4th and 6 now, punt......

The insights are two actually:

- The Browns playbook is apparently so complicated that Cedric Tillman, a third year player who graduated from the University of Tennessee with a degree in Communications struggles to keep up with all the details.   I don't blame Tillman, he's clearly a bright young man trying his best.  I blame the Ivy League approach to football that the Browns utilize.

- The second insight is that the reason the Browns fell in love with Dillon Gabriel is that they convinced themselves that by installing a QB who has complete command of the Browns playbook, they could bridge the gap between their Ivy League playbook to the error free execution of that playbook.  Ironically, it was Gabriel at the commands when Tillman lined up on the wrong side, and our GPU Processor QB somehow missed that tiny detail. 

Is having a playbook so deep that you can counter every possibility the path to a Super Bowl?

Nah......................

Football is not only a chess match, it's an emotional and physical battle of some of the world's greatest athletes.  Intelligence certainly helps, but the history of the NFL is filled with examples of winning teams that ran simple schemes executed by well coached athletes.   Often times, it's actually getting so good at running a play that the athlete DOESN'T have to think that is the key to playing fast and winning.

So who is going to win this week in Las Vegas?  Fascinating question because this week, the Browns won't have their GPU Dillon Gabriel on the field to assure that Kevin Stefanski's playbook is executed with exacting skill.  Instead they will have Jimmy Haslam's greatest draft pick - Shedeur Sanders making his first start.  I love Shedeur but he is the "antithesis" of an Ivy League QB.  Shedeur is a combo of heart and skill.   At this stage of his career I would say keep it simple and let him do what he does, which is win plays.

What should happen is this:

- The Browns use Shedeur like the Steelers used Ben Roethlisberger his rookie season.   Run the ball over 50% of the time and let Shedeur pass no more than 20 times focusing his drop backs on obvious running plays to give him some time to think back there.

What I think probably will happen is:

- The Browns will pass at least 40 times.

There are two factors however that makes me want to choose the Browns Sunday

- First it would be the most Browns thing ever if Shedeur has success Sunday after watching the last month and a half of Dillon Gabriel struggling to get the ball deeper than 5 yards downfield.  As bad as he played last week, Shedeur on several occasions lofted the ball 20+ yards downfield which is a must in the NFL.  Had Greg Lavradain caught a ball that was in his hands, Shedeur would have had a shot at leading a comeback win.

- Second, the Raiders are as bad as the Browns.

Since Stefanski is "not" calling plays Sunday and Tommy Rees is, I am going to go ahead and predict the improbable.   Shedeur plays just well enough to guide the Browns to a win in his first start.  Why?  Because he's a winner even if the Browns usually are not.

The Brown BLog Predicts

Browns    30

Raiders    20

The Brown BLog are 7-3 year to date predicting Browns games. 

Shedeur

I can root for the Browns again. 

What an odd sensation.

Brown BLog Predicts: Game 10 - Ravens v Browns

 

No need to dwell this week.

The Ravens have lost 3 of their last 4 games in Cleveland and Lamar Jackson is playing hurt but the Ravens have started to recover their season and know that getting back to .500 this week is critical to get to the playoff contention.   Meanwhile the Browns are simply trying to figure out how to dial in a few plays that Dillon Gabriel can execute successfully in the NFL.

A win is simply not in the cards this week.

Brown BLog Predicts

Ravens 27

Browns 13

The Brown BLog is 6-3 season to date predicting Browns games.