Antitrust and the NFL

Americans love the Free Market system for just about everything except professional sports especially the NFL.   If one dares to even suggest that the NFL adopt free market practices, you'll have a legion of fans immediately flaming you while they justify the socialist practices that run rampant in pro sports.  All in the name of parity. 

The net result of the monopoly NFL is a limitation on the supply of professional football to the American market.

The prime example of socialism in American pro sports is the socialist salary cap.   There are those that argue that the salary cap was collectively bargained by the NFL and it's players union.   One might retort that to get a salary cap, the NFL had the upper hand. Owners used their dominant position to threaten to break the players union should a strike occur.  Once players knew the owners intended to break their union, players agreed to the cap which was a fair deal only if you consider the NFL's monopoly power so NFL owners, who all profess to be believers in free market economies, got a socialist salary cap, because without it, Jerry Jones might win the Super Bowl every single year since he's willing to pay market value for an athlete and has the cash to do so.  

Another prime example of socialism is the NFL draft.  How might a great Software Engineer feel if he were drafted by Microsoft and forced to accept a rookie contract?   In Europe, there is no such thing as a draft.  A young soccer player can sign with any team that might want him.   Do Arsenal or Real Madrid or Juventus tend to dominate their leagues?   Sure, but so does Apple dominate their markets.  This is called the free market.   And one very nice element in European Professional Sports, the teams that finish at the bottom get relegated to the next lowest league.   Accountability!  What a concept.   Imagine where the Cleveland Browns might be today if accountability existed when they went 1-31.

If the NFL did not have an antitrust exemption which allows them to collectively bargain TV rights, at some point networks would have been willing to sponsor new professional leagues, giving those leagues a financial lifeline and the ability to compete.   That would result in the NFL no longer monopolizing pro football.    In a free market, the Dallas Cowboys might be worth $20 billion dollars, but there's no way the Washington Commanders would "command" $6 billion.   The Commanders sold for $6,000,000,000 because they are one of 32 professional teams.   If other leagues were born in a free market, there would be far more options.

Not to mention, if there were new professional football leagues, NFL owners would not be able to extort tax payer money to build stadiums by the threat of relocation.   

You enjoy the quality of the NFL and are against diluting that?   That is also a hard case to make because less than 2% of NCAA Division I football players ever so much as take a snap in the NFL regular season.   If you can enjoy college football it validates that there is plenty of room for more professional teams. 

Browns History: All time leading tacklers

 Here are the top 10 defensive players in the history of the Cleveland Browns by most tackles (combined solo and assists), with statistics accumulated only during their time with the Browns:

### 1. **Clay Matthews Jr. - 1,430 tackles**

- **Summary**: Clay Matthews Jr. is the Browns' all-time leader in tackles, amassing 1,430 over his career with the team from 1978 to 1993. Known for his durability and versatility, Matthews played both inside and outside linebacker positions. He was a four-time Pro Bowl selection and played in 278 games for the Browns, leaving an indelible mark on the franchise with his consistent performance and leadership.

### 2. **D'Qwell Jackson - 824 tackles**

- **Summary**: D'Qwell Jackson played for the Browns from 2006 to 2013, recording 824 tackles. Jackson led the NFL in tackles in 2008 and was known for his exceptional tackling ability and leadership on the field. He was a cornerstone of the Browns' defense during his tenure, providing stability and production in the middle of the defense.

### 3. **Mike Johnson - 757 tackles**

- **Summary**: Mike Johnson played linebacker for the Browns from 1986 to 1993, accumulating 757 tackles. Johnson was a two-time Pro Bowl selection and a key player in the Browns' defense during the late 1980s and early 1990s. He was known for his tackling prowess and leadership, helping the Browns reach the AFC Championship Game in 1986 and 1989.

### 4. **Andra Davis - 751 tackles**

- **Summary**: Andra Davis played for the Browns from 2002 to 2008, totaling 751 tackles. A reliable and consistent presence at linebacker, Davis was often the team's leading tackler. He was known for his work ethic, leadership, and ability to make plays in the middle of the field.

### 5. **Jim Houston - 625 tackles**

- **Summary**: Jim Houston played for the Browns from 1960 to 1972, recording 625 tackles. A versatile linebacker, Houston was a four-time Pro Bowl selection and a key member of the 1964 NFL Championship team. He was known for his tackling ability and defensive skills, contributing significantly to the Browns' success during his career.

### 6. **Chip Banks - 602 tackles**

- **Summary**: Chip Banks played linebacker for the Browns from 1982 to 1986, amassing 602 tackles. Banks was named the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year in 1982 and earned four Pro Bowl selections. He was known for his athleticism, tackling ability, and playmaking skills, making him one of the standout defensive players of his era.

### 7. **Thom Darden - 589 tackles**

- **Summary**: Thom Darden played safety for the Browns from 1972 to 1981, recording 589 tackles. Known for his tackling and ball-hawking skills, Darden holds the franchise record for interceptions. He was selected to the Pro Bowl in 1978 and was a consistent force in the Browns' secondary, contributing to both the run and pass defense.

### 8. **Eddie Johnson - 579 tackles**

- **Summary**: Eddie Johnson, a linebacker, played for the Browns from 1981 to 1990, recording 579 tackles. Known for his hard-hitting style and aggressive play, Johnson was a key player in the Browns' defense throughout the 1980s. He was a fan favorite for his intensity and dedication on the field.

### 9. **Joe Haden - 387 tackles**

- **Summary**: Joe Haden, a cornerback, played for the Browns from 2010 to 2016, totaling 387 tackles. Known for his coverage skills and tackling ability, Haden was a two-time Pro Bowl selection with the Browns. He was a cornerstone of the Browns' secondary during his tenure and continued his career with the Pittsburgh Steelers, maintaining a high level of play.

### 10. **Bob Golic - 345 tackles**

- **Summary**: Bob Golic played as a defensive tackle and linebacker for the Browns from 1982 to 1988, recording 345 tackles. He was known for his versatility and toughness on the field, earning three Pro Bowl selections. Golic was a key figure in the Browns' defense, contributing both as a run-stopper and pass rusher, and was instrumental in the team's playoff runs during the 1980s.

The Top 5 Free Safeties in Cleveland Browns History

 Ranking the top free safeties in Cleveland Browns history, based on their performance for the team and considering the number of games played and interceptions, here are the top contenders:

1. **Thom Darden**

   - **Games Played**: 128

   - **Interceptions**: 45

   - **Highlights**: Darden holds the Browns' franchise record for interceptions. He played for the Browns from 1972 to 1981 and was known for his ball-hawking abilities and consistent performance in the secondary.

2. **Clarence Scott**

   - **Games Played**: 186

   - **Interceptions**: 39

   - **Highlights**: Although he primarily played as a cornerback, Scott also spent significant time at free safety. His longevity and versatility make him one of the top defensive backs in Browns history.

3. **Eric Turner**

   - **Games Played**: 77

   - **Interceptions**: 17

   - **Highlights**: Turner was a dominant force in the secondary during his time with the Browns from 1991 to 1995. He was known for his hard-hitting style and playmaking ability, earning All-Pro and Pro Bowl honors.

4. **Bobby Franklin**

   - **Games Played**: 98

   - **Interceptions**: 16

   - **Highlights**: Franklin played for the Browns from 1960 to 1966. He was a reliable and steady presence in the secondary, contributing to the team's success during that era.

5. **T.J. Ward**

   - **Games Played**: 54

   - **Interceptions**: 5

   - **Highlights**: Although his interception numbers are lower, Ward was a key player for the Browns' defense from 2010 to 2013. He was known for his physical play and strong tackling, earning a Pro Bowl selection during his time with the team.

These players have made significant contributions to the Cleveland Browns' defense and left a lasting impact on the team's history.

What would happen if the NFL loses it's Antitrust Exemption?

The NFL has an antitrust exemption that allows it to collectively negotiate TV rights.  The NFL uses this exemption to effectively create a monopoly for professional football.  

How does the NFL use it's antitrust exemption to create a monopoly?

Simple, viewership of professional football games is extraordinarily popular and lucrative.  Advertisers pay premiums to place commercials during NFL games and all of the networks crave the broadcast rights that the NFL controls.  The NFL has done an extraordinary job of both making broadcasters fight for those broadcast right but also allocating rights to everybody who broadcasts.  The implied threat of denying those rights keeps everyone out there from even considering the option of supporting a competitive league.

If ABC or CBS or Amazon or ESPN were to ever consider supporting another professional football league the NFL's reaction would be swift (and monopolistic).  They would punish that network by restricting access to broadcasting NFL games. 

The NFL does not want it's fan base to understand what the impact on the market for professional football would be if it were to lose it's antitrust exemption. 

The Brown BLog intend to try to explain this in the coming months.    In a nutshell, if the NFL were to lose it's antitrust exemption the long term impact would be that the free market would rule.  That would be great for consumers, but really bad for most NFL teams, except the Dallas Cowboys and a few others.   But even that would be good for consumers.

Stay tuned. 

Top 10 Lists: The Top 10 Linebackers in Cleveland Browns History

 Ranking the top 10 linebackers in Cleveland Browns history can be subjective, but here is a list based on their contributions, impact on the team, and overall performance:

1. **Clay Matthews Jr.** - Arguably the greatest linebacker in Browns history, Matthews played 16 seasons with the Browns, earning four Pro Bowl selections and being a key defensive leader.

2. **Jim Houston** - A four-time Pro Bowler and two-time All-Pro, Houston was a versatile player who excelled at both defensive end and linebacker during his 13 seasons with the Browns.

3. **Dwayne Rudd** - Known for his athleticism and playmaking ability, Rudd had a significant impact during his time with the Browns, including leading the team in tackles multiple times.

4. **Andra Davis** - A consistent and reliable presence in the middle of the defense, Davis was a tackling machine and team leader during his six seasons with the Browns.

5. **Mike Johnson** - A key member of the Browns' defense in the late 1980s and early 1990s, Johnson was known for his toughness and leadership, earning Pro Bowl honors during his tenure.

6. **Chip Banks** - A dynamic playmaker, Banks was named NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year in 1982 and earned multiple Pro Bowl selections during his time with the Browns.

7. **Dick Ambrose** - Nicknamed "Bam-Bam," Ambrose was a hard-hitting linebacker who played ten seasons with the Browns and was a key part of their defense in the late 1970s and early 1980s.

8. **Walt Michaels** - A standout linebacker in the 1950s, Michaels was known for his toughness and intelligence, helping lead the Browns to multiple championship appearances.

9. **John Thierry** - Though his time with the Browns was brief, Thierry made a significant impact with his pass-rushing ability and versatility as a linebacker and defensive end.

10. **Matt Blair** - Though more known for his time with the Minnesota Vikings, Blair had a productive stint with the Browns, bringing experience and leadership to the linebacker corps.

This list may vary depending on personal preferences and criteria, but these players are widely recognized for their contributions to the Cleveland Browns.

Top 10 Lists: The Top 10 Running Backs in Browns History

Using rushing yardage as a Brown as the critieria, I asked ChatGPT to list the top 10 running backs in Browns history and write a short summary of each.  Here they are:

Here are the top ten running backs in Cleveland Browns history based on rushing yards, listed from highest to lowest:

1. Jim Brown (12,312 yards)

 Jim Brown, considered one of the greatest NFL players of all time, played for the Browns from 1957 to 1965. He led the league in rushing yards eight times and was a nine-time Pro Bowl selection. His powerful running style and remarkable athleticism set numerous records.

2. Leroy Kelly (7,274 yards)

 Kelly played for the Browns from 1964 to 1973, succeeding Jim Brown. He continued the team's dominance in the rushing game, earning six Pro Bowl selections and leading the league in rushing yards twice.

3. Mike Pruitt (6,540 yards)

Mike Pruitt was a standout running back for the Browns from 1976 to 1984. Known for his consistency and durability, Pruitt made two Pro Bowl appearances during his career

4. Nick Chubb (6,511 yards)

Chubb, currently with the team, has been a dominant force since his debut in 2018. Known for his explosive runs and breakaway speed, Chubb has quickly climbed the ranks to become one of the top rushers in franchise history.

5. Greg Pruitt (5,496 yards)

Greg Pruitt, who played from 1973 to 1981, was known for his agility and versatility. He was a five-time Pro Bowl selection and contributed significantly to the Browns' offense both as a runner and receiver.

6. Kevin Mack (5,123 yards)

Playing for the Browns from 1985 to 1993, Mack was a key part of the Browns' backfield in the 1980s. He made two Pro Bowl appearances and was known for his tough, bruising running style.

7. Marion Motley (4,712 yards)

Motley, a Hall of Famer, played from 1946 to 1953. He was instrumental in the Browns' early success, including their AAFC and NFL championships. Motley was known for his powerful running and versatility as a linebacker.

8. Earnest Byner (3,364 yards)

Byner played for the Browns from 1984 to 1988 and again from 1994 to 1995. He was a versatile back, known for his running and receiving skills, making significant contributions to the Browns' offense.

9. Ernie Green (3,204 yards)

Green played for the Browns from 1962 to 1968. A reliable and steady performer, he contributed both as a rusher and receiver, complementing Jim Brown and Leroy Kelly in the backfield.

10. Isaiah Crowell (3,118 yards)

 Crowell played for the Browns from 2014 to 2017. He was known for his strong, downhill running style and provided consistency in the Browns' rushing attack during his tenure.

These players have made significant contributions to the Browns' legacy with their impressive rushing performances over the years.

Otto Graham: The True QB GOAT

Nothing against Tom Brady but he played when NFL rules made it much more difficult to defend receivers.   Otto Graham was the best QB in NFL history, just ask ChatGPT which I've decided to try.  If AI is good enough for major news outlets to consider using to replace human journalists, why not the Brown BLog?

We will note when and where we use ChatGPT to write up a piece, here's the first:

My question to ChatGPT  Defend the opinion that Otto graham was the best quarterback in nfl history

ChatGPT's answer:  Defending the opinion that Otto Graham was the best quarterback in NFL history involves highlighting his exceptional achievements, statistical dominance, and significant impact on the game during his era. Here are key points to support this view:

1. **Unparalleled Winning Record**

Otto Graham led the Cleveland Browns to ten consecutive championship games in his ten-year professional career (1946-1955), winning seven of them. This includes four All-America Football Conference (AAFC) titles and three NFL championships. His consistency in leading his team to the finals every year is unmatched in football history.

2. **Impressive Statistics**

Graham's career statistics are remarkable, especially considering the era in which he played:

- He led the NFL in passing yards five times.

- He led the league in touchdown passes three times.

- His career passer rating of 86.6 was the highest at the time of his retirement, a remarkable feat given the less passer-friendly rules of his era.

3. **Dual-Threat Ability**

Graham was a versatile quarterback who could both pass and run effectively. He rushed for 44 touchdowns in his career, showcasing his ability to impact the game on the ground as well as through the air.

4. **Influence on the Game**

Graham's play helped revolutionize the quarterback position and offensive strategies in professional football. His ability to read defenses and make quick, accurate decisions set a new standard for quarterbacks. He was instrumental in the Browns' adoption of the T-formation, which became a staple in the NFL.

5. **Accolades and Recognition**

Graham was a three-time NFL MVP (1951, 1953, and 1955) and was selected to five Pro Bowls. He was inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 1965, highlighting the lasting impact of his career.

6. **Leadership and Intangibles**

Graham was known for his leadership on and off the field. His poise, intelligence, and competitive spirit were integral to the Browns' sustained success. Teammates and opponents alike respected his ability to perform under pressure.

7. **Contextual Dominance**

When comparing quarterbacks across eras, it’s essential to consider the context in which they played. Graham's dominance during the 1940s and 1950s, a time with fewer protections for quarterbacks and more physical defenses, underscores his exceptional talent and adaptability.

Conclusion

While modern quarterbacks benefit from advancements in training, strategy, and rules favoring the passing game, Otto Graham's accomplishments in his era stand out as extraordinary. His winning record, statistical achievements, dual-threat capability, and influence on the game make a compelling case for considering him the best quarterback in NFL history.

Watch out for the Steelers - Justin Fields returning kicks?

Thus far the Browns have spoke about the new kickoff return as if it's this impossible to predict new rule.  That is confusing to me because the NFL have basically taken the XFL's kickoff rules and tweaked it.  Bubba Ventrone can watch every kickoff in XFL history and I hope he has.

Meanwhile here is a prediction.   The Steelers will win at least one more game this upcoming season by making a few big plays on kickoffs.  Talk of Justin Fields on the kickoff return team is one sure sign that at a bare minimum, the Steelers are thinking outside the box.

It should not be that hard to envision what the Steelers are thinking.   They invested in Cordarrelle Patterson as a kick returner.   If the Steelers are thinking about pairing him with Justin Fields it demonstrates that the Steelers understand the nuances of this new play.

Since kick placement can make it extremely difficult to make a big play on a kickoff return by placing the ball in a corner and affording the kickoff team the opportunity to focus their tacklers in an area, make sure one of your returners can pass the ball accurately.   

Get it?

2024 AFC North Division BROWNS - Draft Observations: Skillsets

 One has to be impressed with the 6 athletes the Cleveland Browns drafted in the 2024 draft.   The only issue I have with the Browns draft is in fact, that total number of 6.   In the AFC North, the Browns have 3 rivals who all draft well.   The Bengals drafted 10 athletes, the Ravens drafted 9, the Steelers drafted 7 and the Browns came in last with 6.  Therein lies the problem.  Unless the Browns hit on all 6 picks, it's highly likely they lost ground in the draft to their rivals because all the Bengals et al have to do is bat around .500 and they will add more talent than the Browns did.

The pain of the massive price of trading for Deshaun Watson to this point has been minimized by excellent drafting.  The Browns scored big with first round talent drafted after the first round.  Martin Emerson is going to be a Pro Bowl player for years to come and Dawand Jones was an absolute steal in the 4th round last season.   Jones has Hall of Fame level potential and he showed it last season against the best possible competition with his amazing shut down of TJ Watt.

So, will the lack of early draft picks and the lack of draft picks in general in 2024 finally sting the Browns?   Only time will tell however one has to be impressed with the Browns strategy.  They scouted and drafted specific skills in the hopes that their draft picks can immediately fill roles productively and I believe they may well have hit the skills jackpot.

A great strategy combined with great scouting, may just yield a perfect score of 6 players who contribute in 2024.  Unfortunately, because the Browns had 6 picks, 4 of which were in rounds 5, 6 and 7, a Lenny Barker like Perfect Draft, is probably what it will take to view the 2024 Browns draft as a success.  Did the Browns have a "perfect draft"?  As difficult as that is, I think there is a chance they may well have hit 1.000 or at least .830 in this draft.

Let's take a look at the new athletes drafted by Cleveland:

- Michael Hall Jr - His skill is explosiveness at the interior line of scrimmage.  It's easy to imagine Jim Schwartz squeezing plenty of pressures out of Hall this season.

- Zak Zinter - A steal whose value slipped because a late season injury prevented Zinter from participating in the combine, Zinter's skill is his size and mobility.  He can get out in space and put a body on speedy linebackers, he will contribute on the kick off return team in 2024 and be an able back up to Bitonio and Teller

- Jamari Thrash - The ability to separate deep.  Douche-on and Jameis Winston will need this guy on the field 10 to 15 times a game. 

- Nathaniel Watson - Experienced big body linebacker whose skill is tackling and he has the potential to be great in the new kick off format immediately. 

- Myles Harden - Hard to draw any conclusions about an athlete from South Dakota, but i do trust the Browns scouting process.   Harden is a depth player whose skill is his tracking ability and his path in 2024 might be the practice squad but I can imagine Harden being a punt team asset in games during the 2024 season. 

- Jowon Briggs - off the charts strength and character.  I listened to an interview with Briggs prior to the draft on the Bengals Booth Pod and was totally impressed.  Given that the Browns had a rare miss in 2023 with Siaki Ika, who had trouble staying on his feet even when nobody blocked him, it is not a stretch to imagine Briggs seeing quality time in 2024 in the interior D line.  Briggs skill is more that of a traditional tackle, he can occupy and control space and unike Ika, he will stay on his feet.

2024 AFC North Division RAVENS - Draft Observations - Culture

I enjoy listening to podcasts that include interviews with team leadership and in particular the Ravens put their front line leaders in front of the press more than any team in the AFC North.  The Browns are by far the most secretive, the Ravens are by far the most transparent.   

I understand that the Browns might still be in recovery mode from the era when Joe Banner and Mike Lombardi made Berea "leak central" but the Browns focus on being discreet appears overdone when contrasted with the Ravens relative openness.

Eric DeCosta and John Harbaugh are a breath of fresh air for this Browns fan, and speaking of the Browns, it's obvious that Ozzie Newsome built a culture in Baltimore and that culture in particular is what stands out about their 2024 draft.  

As I listened to interviews with their drafted players, they all sound very similar.  In particular Nate Wiggins stood out.  I could tell by listening to him speak how competitive, knowledgeable and motivated he is and those traits stood out in every single athlete drafted by Baltimore.   Mind blowing.

Here is the list - 9 athletes and if attitude counts, I could see 8 of them contributing in 2024.  Even if 5 of them get regular snaps, this 2024 Ravens draft feels like yet another big win.

Round 1 – CB Nate Wiggins, Clemson - This gentleman feels like an all-pro in the making - year 1 

Round 2 – OT Roger Rosengarten, Washington - I loved Rosengarten's knowledge of the game, you can tell he is a huge fan, he knew the names and backgrounds both of current players and past.   A true student of the game but again his competitive nature stood out

Round 3 – EDGE Adisa Isaac, Penn State - How did Baltimore get this guy in round 3

Round 4 – WR Devontez Walker, North Carolina - another very fearless sounding player

Round 4 – CB T.J. Tampa, Iowa State - Steal of the draft? 

Round 5 – RB Rasheen Ali, Marshall

Round 6 – QB Devin Leary, Kentucky

Round 7 – C Nick Samac, Michigan State - year one contributor on kick returns for sure

Round 7 – S Sanoussi Kane, Purdue

2024 AFC North Division BENGALS - Draft Observations: Volume

Over the past few years I have gotten into the habit of following podcasts for each team in the AFC North Division.  In Cleveland we have two very good podcasts:  The Orange and Brown Talk Podcast featuring the amazing Mary Kay Cabot and I also enjoy Scott Petrak's Browns Zone Coverage Pod.   All of our rivals have very good podcasts, the best being Dan Hoard's Bengals Booth Pod.  The Ravens and Steelers have tons of options too.

During Draft Week there are daily Pods and I have listened to them all.  So I wanted to share a few observations today about the Cincinnati Bengals draft.   

The AFC North Division is the toughest division in the NFL, so let's start with an obvious assumption:  All of the teams in the AFC North evaluate talent well.   Given that a 50% hit rate is considered great, volume of picks is probably the biggest factor to the success of a teams draft and that's my theme today for the Bengals 

1.  CINCINNATI BENGALS made 10 picks! 

I thought the Bengals had the most impressive and potentially impactful draft on any team in the AFC North.    They filled critical needs at several positions and it always felt like they picked the best player on the board too.   Mike Brown and team managed the draft like expert conductors.   Listening to the interviews of these young athletes I came away impressed with how mature and articulate each of them were.    10 picks are a lot and each of these men are impressive on and off the field.  Will all 10 prove to be capable of being in the top 2% of athletes who thrive in the NFL, doubtful however I would not be shocked if more than half do indeed build successful NFL careers. 

The Bengals picks:

Amarius Mims:  Offensive Tackle -  Huge, athletic

Kris Jenkins:  DT -  NFL pedigree

Jermaine Burton:  WR - Joe Burrow has to like this pick, Bengals spoke about his ability to separate

McKinnley Jackson:  DT - More interior line

Erick All:  TE - Unbelievable athlete whose stock dropped because of injuries

Josh Newton:  DB - Tough and the Bengals talked a lot about his ability to track the ball

Tanner McLachlan:  TE - Big pass catcher who needs to improve his blocking

Cedric Johnson:  DE Ole Miss 

Daijahn Anthony:  DB  Another Ole Miss, started his college career as a walk on, Bengals talked a lot about his motivation and desire

Matt Lee:  C  Bengals believe he has a chance to make the 53 man this year.   Also a nice addition for Kick Return team 

NFL Draft Insights - NFL Draft Pundits are full of shit

NFL fans are in love with the NFL Draft and there are literally dozens of pundits who make a living or are trying to make a living analyzing the crop of athletes who are draft eligible every season.   

So let me start with my only NFL Draft Prediction:   There are zero NFL Draft pundits out there who possess more than a few true insights into the talent in the upcoming NFL Draft.   Nor do fans opinions carry any value.   The only persons on this planet whose conclusions matter are NFL Scouts and even they have a 50% batting average at best but considering the complexity of the task, 50% is extraordinary.   

The bottom line:  Draft pundits are full of shit and I will explain why in the blog.  Read on...

In a quotation that could have easily come from Yogi Berra, Nobel Prize winning Physicist Neils Bohr once said "Prediction is very difficult, especially if it is about the future"

Truer words have never been spoken.   Let's use this insight to analyze the complexity of predicting which NCAA athletes might succeed in the National Football League.   

Fun facts about football players:

• There are over 11,000 athletes who dress for a Division I NCAA College Football Team in a given season
• There are less than 2,000 athletes on NFL rosters, many of them are multi year veterans.  
• In a typical season, a few hundred rookies make a regular season NFL roster or practice squad.
• There are thousands more athletes playing college football in Division II, Division III, NAIA and JUCO.
• Of the thousands of NCAA Division I athletes who are eligible to be drafted in a given season, only about 300 athletes get invited every year to the NFL Scouting Combine.
• Less than 2% of Division I NCAA football players will take so much as a single snap in an NFL regular season game.

So the task of predicting who at the college level will succeed in the NFL comes down to predicting which athletes are in top 2%.

Let's compare choosing NFL players to a task of similar complexity that we might all relate to: Academics:

Baldwin Wallace University, which ironically sits in the shadow of the Cleveland Browns Headquarters, has about 11,000 students, a number on par with the number of Division I football players.   How difficult would it be to predict which incoming Freshmen at Baldwin Wallace are going to be end up graduating and in the top 2% of their college class? 

Pretty damn hard.   

We all know that SAT or ACT scores might help us filter out 80% of the candidates.  But can you look at an SAT score and predict desire, discipline and toughness?  

Of course not.   And that my friends is why Draft Pundits are full of shit. The vast majority of NFL Draft pundits are watching film. Some pundits have contacts that they can inquire with about factors like discipline and character but no one pundit has the time to cover every candidate at that level of depth. Most NFL teams employ dozens of scouts.  That’s the level of scale required. 

 Are there extraordinary athletes who are so good that watching film is enough to predict their success?  Of course, there are a dozen or so of those every year but consider that most often success in the NFL comes down to far more factors that what an athlete puts on film:

Facts:

• No single draft pundit is speaking to all these athletes.   
• No one draft pundit is talking to all their coaches, friends and family. 

To determine the top 2% of any future performance is extraordinarily complex.  To have any chance of accuracy of predicting a potential NFL players success above an accuracy rate of 10% you need to measure far more than film, 40 yard dash times and bench presses.   You need to understand desire, discipline, toughness, and many other factors.  

Only NFL teams staffed with dozens of NFL Scouts have that comprehensive a view and I do believe that there are NFL teams that are good at scouting college players, some are great at scouting potential NFL players and some are even terrible.  Those NFL teams like the Browns who have invested in data and are good at eliminating bias from their process are the ones really hitting home runs, though a wise person might recommend to the Browns they start holding onto their first round picks... In spite of trading many first rounders, the Browns still hit the jackpot in later rounds these last few years with home runs like Dawand Jones and Martin Emerson.   That's no accident folks.

So I don't want to diminish how fun the NFL Draft is but when you pay your hard earned dollar to read a pundit's Draft Guide, just remember, that pundit is full of shit. 

Enjoy the 2024 NFL Draft! 

First Kick Return Touchdown in XFL History

Critical elements of success in the new NFL kickoff 

• Ball placement by the kicker away from the middle of the field
• Return team getting their read on the kick and setting up blocking
• Changing the direction of the return by reverse

The return team does this all right on this kickoff from the XFL, the kicking team does not.